This 0DTE sector recap covers intraday directional bias, key price levels, and the top two stocks to watch in each S&P 500 sector for March 25, 2026 — built for 0DTE and EOW options traders. Today is a major risk-on reversal day driven by a US 15-point Iran peace proposal. Sector leadership has fully flipped from yesterday. Browse all stocks and sector recaps on Morris Legacy. Data sourced from Investing.com and Finviz.
🌍 Macro Context — March 25, 2026
| Driver | Status |
|---|---|
| US-Iran Peace | US 15-point peace proposal delivered via Pakistan → risk-on rally. Futures: Nasdaq +1.05%, S&P +0.89%. |
| Oil (Brent) | ~$96–99 ↓ hard from $103. WTI ~$90. Peace = oil crash. Watch for dead-cat bounce if deal stalls. |
| VIX | ~26.32, falling → fear easing but still elevated. |
| 10yr Treasury | ~4.35%, trending down → rate relief = growth/tech tailwind. |
| NVDA / GTC | Jensen Huang: Vera Rubin + Blackwell orders to exceed $1T through 2027. GTC Day 3. Squeeze catalyst. |
| Rotation | FULL REVERSAL → OUT of defensives (XLU, XLP, XLV) → INTO growth (XLK, XLC, XLY) + cyclicals (XLI, XLB, XLF). |
⚡ Today’s Key Theme: This 0DTE sector recap is a full risk-on reversal. Energy puts. Tech/discretionary calls. Defensive fades. Watch oil and 10yr yield intraday for confirmation or reversal of the theme.
📋 0DTE Sector Recap — Intraday Options Table
Dark header = ETF sector summary. Watch rows show support (blue) / resistance (red) / trade notes. Trade options on Watch stocks, not the ETF itself.
| ETF | Watch | Below (S) | Above (R) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT — Bonds / 20yr 🟢 CALLS (flip) S: $85–86 R: $88–89 | ||||
| TLT | TMF ~$25–26 |
$24–25 | $28–29 | Peace trade = TLT calls. If Iran deal confirmed, rates drop — TMF rockets. Watch 10yr — break below 4.25% = TMF calls accelerate. Don’t fade the peace trade. |
| TLT | TBT ~$33–34 |
$31–32 | $35–36 | Only play TBT puts if peace deal collapses intraday. Otherwise TBT is the fade today — yields falling = TBT falling. |
| XLB — Materials 🟢 CALLS S: $91–92 R: $95–96 | ||||
| XLB | FCX ~$56–58 |
$54–55 | $59–60 | Copper bid on risk-on/peace trade. Calls on dips to $54–55. Brent dropping = global growth trade on. Earnings Apr 16. High beta to copper futures. |
| XLB | LIN ~$440–450 |
$435–438 | $452–455 | Industrial gases/chemicals. Calls on $435–438. Slower mover — better EOW. Benefits from manufacturing rebound narrative. |
| XLC — Comm. Services 🟢 CALLS S: $92–93 R: $97–98 | ||||
| XLC | META ~$550–570 |
$545–550 | $570–575 | Peace + falling yields = META calls. Yield dropping below 4.25% = multiple expansion. Calls on any pullback to $545–550. Strong open expected. |
| XLC | GOOGL ~$160–168 |
$158–160 | $168–170 | AI infra + advertising. Risk-on day = GOOGL calls. If both META and GOOGL gap up together — sector has legs. Fade at $168–170 resistance. |
| XLE — Energy 🔴 PUTS S: $57–59 R: $61–62 | ||||
| XLE | XOM ~$112–116 |
$110–112 | $117–118 | Peace = oil crashing. Brent ~$96–99. XOM puts on any bounce toward $117–118. Don’t chase if oil bounces on escalation headlines. Binary risk remains. |
| XLE | COP ~$98–104 |
$96–98 | $106–108 | Higher beta to oil. Peace = COP puts hard and fast. Calls only if Iran deal collapses. Watch Brent tick-for-tick. Alert at $96 key support. |
| XLF — Financials 🟢 CALLS (mild) S: $48–49 R: $51–52 | ||||
| XLF | JPM ~$238–245 |
$235–238 | $248–250 | Risk-on lifts banks. Calls on dips to $235–238. Peace = M&A activity resumes = IB bid. Puts only if market reverses intraday. |
| XLF | BRK.B ~$512–520 |
$508–512 | $525–528 | Slower mover. Calls on $508–512. If BRK.B lags while JPM rips — financials not fully committed to risk-on. Good sector barometer. |
| XLI — Industrials 🟢 CALLS S: $163–165 R: $167–168 | ||||
| XLI | GEA ~$205–215 |
$200–204 | $217–220 | Risk-on + defense + AI infra = GEA calls. Calls on dips to $200–204. Watch for momentum continuation above $217. |
| XLI | CAT ~$388–400 |
$383–386 | $402–405 | Global growth trade = CAT bid. Calls on $383–386. Watch for exhaustion at $402–405 — puts if spikes there on no volume. |
| XLK — Technology 🟢 CALLS / squeeze S: $137–139 R: $142–144 | ||||
| XLK | NVDA ~$176–182 |
$174–176 | $183–185 | SHORT SQUEEZE ALERT. Tripled short interest + peace + GTC Day 3 + Vera Rubin $1T order forecast. Calls on $174–176. If $185 breaks, squeeze continues violently. Earnings May 27. |
| XLK | AAPL ~$202–210 |
$200–202 | $212–215 | Yields falling = AAPL calls. China trade thaw adds. Calls on $200–202. Better EOW than 0DTE. Watch China headlines. |
| XLP — Cons. Staples 🔵 NEUTRAL / PUTS lean S: $80–81 R: $83–84 | ||||
| XLP | WMT ~$96–99 |
$94–96 | $101–102 | Risk-on = rotation OUT of defensives. WMT may underperform. Puts on failed tests of $101–102. Calls only if market reverses sharply. |
| XLP | COST ~$955–975 |
$945–952 | $980–988 | High premium options — EOW only. Puts on $980–988 resistance if market stays risk-on. Don’t force 0DTE here. |
| XLRE — Real Estate 🟢 CALLS (rate-driven) S: $40–41 R: $43–44 | ||||
| XLRE | AMT ~$192–200 |
$190–192 | $202–205 | Yields falling = AMT calls. If 10yr drops below 4.25% today, AMT accelerates. Calls on $190–192. Watch the bond market first. |
| XLRE | PLD ~$101–107 |
$99–101 | $108–110 | Industrial REITs benefit from global trade recovery. Calls on $99–101. Slower than AMT. EOW preferred. |
| XLU — Utilities 🔵 NEUTRAL / PUTS lean S: $44–45 R: $46–47 | ||||
| XLU | CEG ~$272–285 |
$268–272 | $288–292 | Risk-on = rotation OUT of defensives. CEG may give back gains. Puts on failed tests of $288–292. AI power demand still structural but today is a rotation day. |
| XLU | NEE ~$71–74 |
$70–71 | $76–78 | Same dynamic. Puts on $76–78 if market stays risk-on. Calls only if market reverses intraday. Watch yields closely. |
| XLV — Healthcare 🔵 NEUTRAL S: $143–145 R: $147–148 | ||||
| XLV | LLY ~$785–815 |
$778–782 | $820–825 | Defensive rotation off = LLY neutral-to-mild puts. Drug headline overrides macro. Check FDA calendar before entering. Very high premium — check IV. |
| XLV | UNH ~$482–496 |
$478–482 | $500–505 | Risk-on = UNH likely lags. Puts on $500–505 resistance. Calls if market reverses. EOW better than 0DTE. |
| XLY — Cons. Discret. 🟢 CALLS S: $109–111 R: $114–115 | ||||
| XLY | TSLA ~$245–260 |
$240–244 | $265–268 | Risk-on + peace = TSLA squeeze candidate. Elevated short interest. Calls on $240–244. Iran peace = auto tariff relief narrative. Fast mover — watch premarket gap. |
| XLY | AMZN ~$198–208 |
$194–197 | $210–213 | Risk-on = AMZN calls. AWS + consumer spending recovery narrative. Calls on $194–197 dips. Stronger fundamentals than TSLA. Better EOW candidate. |
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data, analysis, and commentary are provided as general information. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, due diligence, and any purchases or sales of market assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.